The ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are melting, sea levels are rising, and the rate of ice loss is increasing. These are the conclusions a new peer-reviewed report published in the journal Science came to. The study, authored by 47 experts from 26 institutes, used satellite images to show that the ice sheet melting has contributed to an 11 mm (0.4 in) rise in sea levels. The Greenland ice sheets contributed 2/3 to this rise while Antarctica contributed the remaining 1/3. Also startling were the comments on the Pine Island Glacier, an iceberg the size of New York City that is set to calve off in the upcoming months. While most of this information is probably not news to you, it does offer scientific proof that the planet is warming. We must act now. Please inform yourselves about solutions to climate change – whether through cap-and-trade or a carbon tax – and pressure your elected officials to enact policy measures. The only way to slow the rate of warming is to reduce our emissions through every means possible. Use less energy by making energy-efficient upgrades to your house. Write a letter to your representatives to end subsidies for fossil fuels so renewable technologies can compete on a level field. Or simply turn off electronics when they are not in use. Climate change is a problem that touches all areas of modern society – it is a national security issue, an economic issue, a development issue, and a humanitarian issue. And as this study proves it is getting worse. The paradox is that by the time we see changes that affect us, it may be too late to stop it.
The International Energy Agency released their 2012 version of World Energy Outlook today and it featured some interesting highlights. Here are some of the points that peaked my interest:
- In 2011, fossil fuel subsidies grew 30% to $523 billion while renewable energy received just $88 billion.
Fossil fuels according to the New Policies Scenario:
- The US will become the largest oil producer by 2017, a net exporter of natural gas by 2020, and will be almost energy-self-sufficient (in net terms) by 2035.
- Global oil demand increases by 7mb/d to 99mb/d in 2035 at which time price reach $125/ barrel (real terms) = (over $215/ barrel nominal terms).
- The gas boom in North America will reverse the direction of the international oil trade, with almost 90% of Middle Eastern exports destined for Asia.
- Natural gas demand increase by 50% in 2035, with most of the production coming from the US, Australia, and China.
- By 2035 we can achieve efficiency savings equivalent to 20% of global demand in 2010.
- By 2015 renewables become the world’s second-largest source of power generation, closing in on coal as the primary source by 2035.
In the Efficient World Scenario, greater efforts are placed on energy efficiency measures that would cut the global demand by half. Other benefits realized in this scenario include:
- Global oil demand would peak by 2020 and be 13mb/d lower by 2035.
- “The accrued resources would facilitate a gradual reorientation of the global economy, boosting cumulative economic output to 2035 by $18 trillion, with the biggest gains in India, China, the United States and Europe.”
This is all well and good, but there are a few things to note about the conclusions:
- Energy sufficiency does not mean that we will be insulated from the price spikes on the global market.
- Approximately 55% of America’s energy self-sufficiency is from increased production – the remaining 45% is from increased energy efficiency measures such as better gas mileage in cars and trucks, more efficient buildings, and smarter appliances.
- Electricity prices in the US will be about half that of Europe as power plants switch to cheap natural gas. This will be a huge boom for the economy as heavy industry repopulate parts of the mid-west. However, in terms of climate change, increased use of natural gas will be offset by increased coal usage in the developing world.
Finally, and very sobering, the report concluded that the unless a global emissions agreement is implemented by 2017, the planet will not remain within the 2 degree Celsius range that most scientists agree is the upper safe limit on warming.
Congratulations! We are finally out of this election cycle and all the negative ads. And no matter who the winner is, I hope that we can all come together to build a stronger economy and a healthier society. While we wait for the mudslinging over the fiscal cliff to begin, here are the top four recommendations on climate change policy for the incoming (or returning) president as stated in Businessweek.
1) Put a price on carbon. I alluded to this in a previous post called Carbon Emission where we discuss the differences between a carbon tax and a cap-and-trade policy. Businessweek says that “A $20-per-ton carbon price—collected as a tax or by auctioning carbon allowances—would raise on the order of $100 billion per year while creating powerful economic incentives to curb pollution in the most cost-effective manner (and develop new technologies to do so). A carbon price is also an ideal way to help address the coming “fiscal cliff”: Using some of the revenue to pay for lower taxes on labor or capital would provide a double dividend by reducing distortions in our tax system. For that reason, a carbon price enjoys broad support from economists across the political spectrum, from N. Gregory Mankiw, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, and Arthur Laffer on the Right, to Paul Krugman, Joseph Stiglitz, and Jeffrey Sachs on the Left.”
2) Cut Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases. CO2 is obviously the biggest contributor to global warming, accounting for over 80% of GHG’s, but it is not the most potent. Other GHG’s such as Methane, Nitrous Oxide, and other flourinated gases such as hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride are numerous time more potent warmers than CO2. I wrote a paper on this earlier this year and will post it later this month. Needless to say, focusing attention on these High Global Warming Potential gases may do more in the short-term to curb warming and create some international “good will” for tackling the CO2 problem.
3) Promote Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency. The administration should further the transition to renewable energy sources by removing subsidies for fossil fuels and encouraging smarter subsidies for clean energy. I wrote extensively on this subject here. In short, current subsidies to fossil fuels should be removed and invested into R&D. The current subsidies in place for renewable energy promote widespread deployment of these technologies, but do nothing to increase their output and reduce their cost. A better subsidy policy would promote increases in efficiency or reductions in cost in order to make these technologies competitive with cheap and abundant natural gas. After all, the taxpayer wants to see results from their money.
4) Use the Clean Air Act. Finally, the new administration should take full advantage of the Clean Air Act that sets new vehicle mileage standards, sets limits on pollution from industrial sources, and sets more protective standards for air quality. “The next administration should build on these steps by setting carbon-pollution emission standards for stationary sources, including new and existing power plants. In doing so, the EPA can draw on a proud tradition, dating back to the Reagan administration, of making clean-air rules as economically efficient and flexible as possible—for example, by allowing averaging and trading so companies can meet standards on a fleet-wide basis rather than at each facility individually. The EPA should also design the carbon standards in a way that rewards states that implement their own rigorous programs—such as the innovative cap-and-trade approaches already in use in the Northeast and getting under way in California.”
There you have it. In only a few hours from now we will know the next leader of the United States of America. Now if the time for action on climate change. The four steps outlined above are only the beginning, but they will help to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, improve the health of our citizens (and the other 6.7 billion citizen of this planet), and even provide opportunities for the growth of new industries. This is a tall order, but we have never backed down from a challenge before, why start now?
I just want to reach out to all the people affected by Hurricane Sandy this past week. Some people lost loved ones, some people lost property, and some people lost it all. Please be good to each other. Together we will make it through.